“Financial Consequences of Political Uncertainty: The Arab Spring”
by A. Başak Tanyeri
Bilkent University – Faculty of Business Administration
We investigate how political unrest affects assets prices in the context of Arab Spring. Abnormal returns in major stock-market indices of Arab Spring countries average -1 percent on key days of Arab Spring where Egypt is the country most affected. Abnormal changes in credit default spreads average 1 percent with Saudi Arabia experiencing the most significant spike. The stock market reaction is more pronounced around local protests when compared to protests in neighboring countries. The significant reaction to region-wide protests indicates a spill-over with protests in neighboring countries affecting investors’ perception of local political instability and the pricing of assets.
JEL: G23, G34
Keywords: Political uncertainty, Arab Spring, regional spill-overs.