February 11, Okan Akarsu
Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday Time: 10.30 – 11.30 Place: MA-330 "Inflation Expectations and Firms' Decisions in High Inflation” by Okan Akarsu Sabancı University Abstract We conducted a survey of Turkish firms, using randomized treatments to provide varied information about inflation in a high-inflation environment. By matching the survey data with administrative firm-level data on employment, sales, credit, and foreign exchange transactions, we explore the impact of exogenous variations in inflation expectations on firms' behavior, borrowing decisions, and expectations. Our findings are summarized in seven facts: (i) information treatments are effective at generating exogenous variation in inflation expectations, even when inflation is high; (ii) the pass-through to firms' own price, wage, and cost expectations is strong, reaching up to 60%; (iii) firms adopt a supply-side interpretation of inflation—lower inflation expectations…

