Dilek Önkal
Professor
onkal@bilkent.edu.tr | HomePage
Academic Specialization: Decision Sciences
Research interests: Judgmental forecasting, judgment and decision making, forecasting support systems, decision support systems, risk perception and risk communication
Prof. Dilek Önkal is Honorary Research Fellow at UCL and Professor of Decision Sciences at Bilkent University. She received her B.A. from Boğaziçi University and her Ph.D. from the University of Minnesota, where she taught prior to joining Bilkent University in 1988. She was an academic visitor at Oxford University Department of Economics and an associate member of the Nuffield College during 2006-2007, and she currently holds a visiting professorship at the University of Bath School of Management. Prof. Önkal previously held positions of Dean of the Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences at Bilkent University and Chair of Supply Chain Management and Director of OASIS (Operations and Supply Chain Systems) Research Centre at Brunel Business School, Brunel University, U.K.. She is an Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting, as well as an Associate Editor of IJDS and IJAMS. Her research focuses on judgmental forecasting, judgment and decision making, forecasting/decision support systems, risk perception and risk communication with a strong emphasis on multi-disciplinary interactions. Her work has appeared in journals such as Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Decision Sciences Journal, Risk Analysis, International Journal of Forecasting, Decision Support Systems, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Journal of Forecasting, Omega: The International Journal of Management Science, Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Frontiers in Finance and Economics, Risk Management: An International Journal, International Federation of Technical Analysts Journal, Journal of Business Ethics, and European Journal of Operational Research. She is a reviewer for grant councils such as the Economic & Social Research Council, The British Academy, European Science Foundation, Hong Kong Research Grants Council, and TÜBİTAK in addition to many psychology, economics, political science and business journals.
Selected Publications :
Önkal , D., M.S. Gonul, P.Goodwin, M. Thomson, E. Oz (2017). Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: Users’ reactions to presumed vs experienced credibility. International Journal of Forecasting, 33, 280-297.
Alvarado Valencia, J.A., L.H.Barrero, D. Önkal , J. Dennerlein (2017). Expertise, credibility of system forecasts and integration methods in judgmental demand forecasting . International Journal of Forecasting, 33, 298-313.
Fildes, R., P. Goodwin, and D. Önkal (2016)., Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion events. LUMS Working Paper 2016:4 . Lancaster University, Department of Management Science.
Fildes, R., P. Goodwin, and D. Önkal (2015). Information use in supply chain forecasting, LUMS Working Paper 2015:2 . Lancaster University, Department of Management Science.
Gönül, M.S., E. Soyer, and D. Önkal (2014). Decision Analysis in Turkey. Decision Analysis Today, 33(1), 16-18.
Önkal, D., K. Z. Sayım, and M.S. Gönül (2013). Scenarios as channels of forecast advice. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 80, 772-788.
Kaptan, G., Shiloh,S. and Önkal,D. (2013). Values and risk perceptions: A cross-cultural examination. Risk Analysis, 33, 318-332.
Goodwin, P., M.S. Gönül, and D. Önkal (2013). Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice. International Journal of Forecasting, 29, 354-366.
Thomson, M.E., A.C. Pollock, M.S. Gönül, and Önkal, D. (2013). Effects of trend strength and direction on performance and consistency in judgmental exchange rate forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 29, 337-353.
Gönül, M.S., D. Önkal and Goodwin, P. (2012). Why should I trust your forecasts? Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 27, 5-9.
Önkal, D., Sayım, K.Z. and Lawrence, M. (2012). Wisdom of group forecasts: Does role-playing play a role? Omega: International Journal of Management Science, 40, 693-702.
Ayton, P., Önkal, D., and McReynolds, L. (2011). Effects of ignorance and information on judgments and decisions. Judgment and Decision Making, 6, 381-391.
Önkal, D., and Aktas, E. (2011). Supply chain flexibility: Managerial implications. In D. Önkal and E. Aktas (eds.), Supply Chain Systems-Pathways for Research and Practice, Croatia: Intech Publ., 75-84.
Önkal, D., and Aktas, E. (eds) (2011). Supply Chain Systems – Pathways for Research and Practice, Croatia: Intech Publ.
Goodwin, P., Önkal, D.and Lawrence, M. (2011). Improving the role of judgment in economic forecasting. In M.P. Clements and D.F. Hendry (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 163-189.
Önkal, D., Lawrence,M. and Sayım, K.Z. (2011). Influence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracy. International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 50-68.
Goodwin, P., Önkal, D. and Thomson, M. (2010). Do forecasts expressed as prediction intervals improve production planning decisions? European Journal of Operational Research, 205, 195-201.
Önkal , D., Gönül, M.S. and Thomson, M. (2010). The influence of trend direction and assessment order on judgmental prediction intervals. International Journal of Decision Sciences, 1, 5-20.
Önkal , D., Pollock, A.C. Macaulay, A. and Thomson, M. (2010). A trading application using empirical directional probabilities: GBP/USD. International Journal of Decision Sciences, 1, 89-111.
Pollock, A.C., Macaulay, A., Thomson, M., Gönül, M.S. and Önkal, D. (2010). Evaluating strategic directional probability predictions of exchange rates. International Journal of Applied Management Science, 2, 282-304.
Önkal, D. (2009). Comments on Effective Forecasting for Supply-Chain Planning: An Empirical Evaluation and Strategies for Improvement. International Journal of Forecasting, 25, 30-31.
Önkal, D.,Goodwin, P., Thomson, M., Gönül, M.S. and Pollock, A. (2009). The relative influence of advice from human experts and statistical methods on forecast adjustments. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 22, 390–409.
Gönül , M. S., Önkal, D. and Goodwin, P. (2009). Expectations, use and judgmental adjustment of external financial and economic forecasts: An empirical investigation. Journal of Forecasting, 28, 19-37.
Pollock, A.C., Macaulay, A., Thomson, M. and Önkal, D. (2008). Using weekly empirical probabilities in currency analysis and forecasting. Frontiers in Finance and Economics, 5 (2), 26- 55.
Önkal, D., Gönül, M.S. and Lawrence, M. (2008). Judgmental adjustments of previously-adjusted forecasts. Decision Sciences, 39, 213-238.
Shiloh, S., Güvenç, G. and Önkal, D. (2007). Cognitive and emotional representations of terror attacks: A cross-cultural exploration. Risk Analysis, 27, 397-409.
Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P., O’Connor, M. and Önkal, D. (2006). Judgemental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years. International Journal of Forecasting, 22, 493-518.
Gönül, M.S., Önkal, D. and Lawrence , M.(2006). The effects of structural characteristics of explanations on use of a DSS. Decision Support Systems, 42, 1481-1493.
Pollock, A. C., Macaulay, A., Thomson, M. and Önkal, D. (2005). Performance evaluation of judgmental directional exchange rate predictions. International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 473-489.
Önkal, D. and Gönül, M.S. (2005). Judgmental adjustment: A challenge for providers and users of forecasts. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 1, 13-17.
Şımga-Mugan, C., Daly,B., Önkal, D. and Kavut, L. (2005). The influence of nationality and gender on ethical sensitivity: An application of the issue-contingent model. Journal of Business Ethics, 57, 139-159.
Thomson, M.E., Önkal, D., Avcioglu, A. and Goodwin, P. (2004). Aviation risk perception: A comparison between experts and novices. Risk Analysis, 24, 1585-1595 .
Goodwin, P., Önkal,D., Thomson,M.E., Pollock,A.C. and Macaulay, A. (2004). Feedback-labelling synergies in judgmental stock price forecasting. Decision Support Systems, 37, 175-186.
Bolger, F., and Önkal,D. (2004). The effects of feedback on judgmental interval predictions. International Journal of Forecasting, 20, 29-39.
Önkal, D., and Bolger, F. (2004). Provider-user differences in perceived usefulness of forecasting formats. OMEGA: The International Journal of Management Science, 32, 31-39.
Önkal, D., Yates, J.F., Simga-Mugan, C. and Oztin, S. (2003). Professional vs amateur judgment accuracy: The case of foreign exchange rates. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 91, 169-185.
Thomson, M.E., Önkal, D. and Güvenç, G. (2003). A cognitive portrayal of risk perception in Turkey: Some cross-national comparisons. Risk Management: An International Journal, 5 (No.4), 25-35.
Thomson, M.E., Önkal, D., Pollock, A.C. and Macaulay, A. (2003). The influence of trend strength on directional probabilistic currency predictions. International Journal of Forecasting, 19, 241-256.
Pollock, A.C., Macaulay,A., Thomson, M.E. and Önkal, D. (2002). Probability predictions of currency movements: Judgement and technical analysis. International Federation of Technical Analysts Journal, 15-20.
Önkal, D., Thomson,M.E. and Pollock, A.C. (2002). Judgemental forecasting, in M.P. Clements and D.F. Hendry (eds.), A Companion to Economic Forecasting, Oxford: Blackwell Publishers, 133-151.
Pollock, A.C., Macaulay, A., Önkal, D. and Thomson, M.E. (2002). Consistent judgmental directional probability exchange rate predictions, in K.D. Lawrence, M.D. Geurts and J.G. Guerard Jr. (eds.) Advances in Business and Management Forecasting Vol.3, Oxford: JAI, 161-175.
